Asset Class
Rates Govt Bonds
Current research across global government bond markets reveals a widening divergence in monetary policy expectations, driven by regional growth disparities and shifting inflation trends. In the United States, softening labor data—evidenced by ADP payrolls falling significantly to 22k—supports forecasts for the Federal Reserve to cut rates toward a 3.14% floor. Similarly, the European Central Bank faces pressure to continue easing policy as regional inflation has dropped to 1.7% amid fragile economic growth and geopolitical uncertainty. Conversely, interest rate markets in New Zealand and Australia have recently hit cycle highs, with pricing suggesting terminal rates of 3.15% and 4.26% respectively to combat domestic pressures. Japan presents a distinct case for policy normalization; despite a slowdown in Tokyo CPI, the Bank of Japan is focusing on 'underlying' trend inflation near 2% to justify potential further rate hikes. Regional dynamics in Asia remain mixed, with Bank Indonesia expected to hold rates to defend the rupiah while the Bank of Thailand explores cuts to address persistent deflation. Overall, government bond yields are being shaped by this fundamental policy recalibration as markets weigh the potential for higher rates to dampen recovery versus the need for easing in softening economies.
1202 reports available
FX Daily Corrective Forces in Play
FX markets are experiencing a correction as a sell-off in US tech stocks and volatility in silver pressure procyclical currencies, while the focus shifts to ECB, BoE, and CEE central bank meetings.
US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing
A major momentum unwind in tech and TMT sectors was driven by positioning shifts rather than fundamental changes, while rising inflation signals from the ISM and Adobe Digital Price Index suggest macro risks for late 2026.
Multi Asset Strategy Daily
Mizuho highlights technical resistance for US 10-year yields at 4.30% and expects steady, non-volatile policy outcomes from the ECB and BoE. Market sentiment remains cautious following a risk-off session in Asia and upcoming US-Iran meetings.
New Zealand Morning Focus
ANZ's morning report notes weak US hiring data and easing Eurozone inflation, which supports the case for further ECB easing. Global equity markets, especially tech, faced downward pressure while the NZD weakened following local labor data.
FX Daily Snapshot
The Yen remains weak as Japanese election polls favor a strong mandate for PM Takaichi's reflationist agenda. Meanwhile, Euro and Krona strength are raising disinflation concerns for the ECB and Riksbank, respectively.
New Zealand Weekly Data Wrap
New Zealand's economy shows signs of a 'spring thaw' with robust employment growth and surging dairy prices, though interest rates have reached cycle highs.