Equity Research · Semiconductors
Q2 capex cycle intact; raising estimates
11 July 2026 · 28 pages
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Top picks
Goldman Sachs11 Jul
Semis Q2 — capex cycle intact
Equities$NVDA
Summary
Reiterates Buy on NVDA; lifts FY27 EPS 8% on sustained hyperscaler capex. A 2H supply step-up is the swing factor.
Goldman Sachs$NVDA
Morgan Stanley11 Jul
EU Banks — Q2 preview
Equities$BNP
Summary
Expects beats on net interest income; prefers BNP and ISP. Capital returns are the catalyst into H2.
Morgan Stanley$BNP
J.P. Morgan10 Jul
US Macro — soft-landing base case
Macro
Summary
Holds the soft-landing base case; sees two cuts into year-end as disinflation resumes through Q3.
J.P. Morgan
Citi10 Jul
EUR Rates — ECB cut path revised
Rates
Summary
Pulls forward the first ECB cut; receives front-end EUR and targets a steeper 2s10s curve.
Citi
Barclays9 Jul
Crude — OPEC compliance scenarios
Commodities$BZ=F
Summary
Models three compliance paths; the base case keeps Brent in a $78–86 range through Q3.
Barclays$BZ=F
UBS9 Jul
Japan Equities — governance re-rating
Equities
Summary
Sees further re-rating on buybacks and cross-holding unwind; overweight banks and trading houses.
UBS
Bank of America9 Jul
Gold — central-bank demand
Commodities$XAU
Summary
Lifts the gold target on structural central-bank buying; dips toward $2,250 are buyable.
Bank of America$XAU
Goldman Sachs11 Jul
Semis Q2 — capex cycle intact
Equities$NVDA
Summary
Reiterates Buy on NVDA; lifts FY27 EPS 8% on sustained hyperscaler capex. A 2H supply step-up is the swing factor.
Goldman Sachs$NVDA
Morgan Stanley11 Jul
EU Banks — Q2 preview
Equities$BNP
Summary
Expects beats on net interest income; prefers BNP and ISP. Capital returns are the catalyst into H2.
Morgan Stanley$BNP
J.P. Morgan10 Jul
US Macro — soft-landing base case
Macro
Summary
Holds the soft-landing base case; sees two cuts into year-end as disinflation resumes through Q3.
J.P. Morgan
Citi10 Jul
EUR Rates — ECB cut path revised
Rates
Summary
Pulls forward the first ECB cut; receives front-end EUR and targets a steeper 2s10s curve.
Citi
Barclays9 Jul
Crude — OPEC compliance scenarios
Commodities$BZ=F
Summary
Models three compliance paths; the base case keeps Brent in a $78–86 range through Q3.
Barclays$BZ=F
UBS9 Jul
Japan Equities — governance re-rating
Equities
Summary
Sees further re-rating on buybacks and cross-holding unwind; overweight banks and trading houses.
UBS
Bank of America9 Jul
Gold — central-bank demand
Commodities$XAU
Summary
Lifts the gold target on structural central-bank buying; dips toward $2,250 are buyable.
Bank of America$XAU
Macro & rates
J.P. Morgan11 Jul
US Macro — dot-plot scenarios
Macro
Summary
Maps three dot-plot outcomes; the median still signals two cuts, with risks skewed hawkish.
J.P. Morgan
Goldman Sachs11 Jul
Rates — front-end pricing
Rates
Summary
Front-end prices too few cuts; recommends long 2Y Treasuries into the next CPI print.
Goldman Sachs
Citi10 Jul
ECB — terminal rate debate
Rates
Summary
The terminal-rate debate intensifies; sees the ECB undershooting market expectations by 25bp.
Citi
Barclays10 Jul
Bund spreads — fiscal risk
Rates
Summary
Fiscal supply pressures the periphery; widens the OAT-Bund target and stays neutral BTPs.
Barclays
Morgan Stanley10 Jul
BoJ exit — banks vs exporters
Macro
Summary
BoJ normalisation favours domestic banks over exporters; flags yen-sensitivity in autos.
Morgan Stanley
HSBC9 Jul
China stimulus — pace & mix
Macro
Summary
Stimulus skews to consumption; the property drag persists, keeping growth near 4.8%.
HSBC
Deutsche Bank9 Jul
UST supply — auction stress
Rates
Summary
Coupon supply tests demand; watches the indirect bid at long-end auctions for stress.
Deutsche Bank
J.P. Morgan11 Jul
US Macro — dot-plot scenarios
Macro
Summary
Maps three dot-plot outcomes; the median still signals two cuts, with risks skewed hawkish.
J.P. Morgan
Goldman Sachs11 Jul
Rates — front-end pricing
Rates
Summary
Front-end prices too few cuts; recommends long 2Y Treasuries into the next CPI print.
Goldman Sachs
Citi10 Jul
ECB — terminal rate debate
Rates
Summary
The terminal-rate debate intensifies; sees the ECB undershooting market expectations by 25bp.
Citi
Barclays10 Jul
Bund spreads — fiscal risk
Rates
Summary
Fiscal supply pressures the periphery; widens the OAT-Bund target and stays neutral BTPs.
Barclays
Morgan Stanley10 Jul
BoJ exit — banks vs exporters
Macro
Summary
BoJ normalisation favours domestic banks over exporters; flags yen-sensitivity in autos.
Morgan Stanley
HSBC9 Jul
China stimulus — pace & mix
Macro
Summary
Stimulus skews to consumption; the property drag persists, keeping growth near 4.8%.
HSBC
Deutsche Bank9 Jul
UST supply — auction stress
Rates
Summary
Coupon supply tests demand; watches the indirect bid at long-end auctions for stress.
Deutsche Bank
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extracted
Goldman Sachs · 11 Jul 2026
Semis Q2 — capex cycle intact
Summary
Goldman reiterates Buy on NVDA, lifts FY27 EPS by 8% on sustained hyperscaler capex. Pricing discipline and a 2H supply step-up are the swing factors.
Trade ideas
- ·Long NVDA — capex visibility through 2027
- ·Pair long AVGO / short INTC on custom-silicon share shift
Tickers
$NVDA$AVGO$TSM
Key data
Hyperscaler capex 2026E$312bn+18% YoYp. 4
NVDA gross margin Q3E74.5%+60 bpsp. 11
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