Carmignac Research Hub

Carmignac maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on Emerging Market debt, emphasizing structural resilience despite the volatility induced by the March 2026 oil shock. The firm highlights that significantly improved reserve buffers and high real interest rates have empowered central banks to navigate macroeconomic pressures without resorting to generalized tightening. Within their portfolio construction, Carmignac advocates for a highly selective approach, specifically targeting high-yield sovereign opportunities in regions like Argentina and Côte d'Ivoire. Furthermore, the strategy leans into high-carry foreign exchange exposures within Latin America to drive performance. Conversely, the research underscores a defensive stance on local rates, driven by persistent energy-related inflation risks and compressed carry potential across Asian markets.