Cboe Research Hub

Current research indicates a pronounced divergence between compressed macro volatility and elevated single-stock volatility, which has surged to 45% amid historically low 6% stock correlations. A recurring theme across recent reports is the unprecedented level of bullish retail sentiment, characterized by a third of S&P 100 stocks exhibiting inverted call skew—a phenomenon not witnessed since the 2021 meme stock era. Institutional data highlights that mega-cap tech performance is increasingly driven by speculative retail call buying, which now accounts for 52% of total opening volume in the top ten names. Concurrently, while index volatility like the VIX has seen only moderate movement, small-cap volatility indicators have reached the 89th percentile in protection demand. Furthermore, the decoupling of traditional asset correlations is evident as gold's correlation with equities hits 83%, signaling a decline in its role as a traditional safe-haven asset. Overall, market participants are navigating a landscape defined by significant concentration risk and high-intensity single-stock volatility despite a quieter macro environment.