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CIBC Capital Markets Research Hub
CIBC Capital Markets centers its current research on a "geopolitical tug of war" that is significantly influencing major currency pairs like USD/CAD and USD/JPY. While near-term safe-haven demand continues to bolster the USD, analysts anticipate a shift toward trend weakening by late 2026 as global rate divergence becomes fully integrated into market pricing. In Europe, the firm highlights the European Central Bank's probable trajectory toward a June interest rate hike as a key regional catalyst. Regarding the Japanese Yen, CIBC notes a shift in policy sentiment, with the Ministry of Finance appearing resigned to JPY weakness exceeding the 160 level. The research also monitors the CNH, which remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, specifically potential outcomes from high-level Trump-Xi summitry. Finally, for emerging markets, CIBC identifies attractive carry opportunities in the MXN and BRL, though they caution that underlying political risks persist as a primary headwind for these assets.
3 reports available
The Week Ahead
This report argues that the Federal Reserve's dot plot is an unreliable forecasting tool that should be discontinued. It also provides economic outlooks for Canada and the US, including upcoming GDP and employment data releases.
FX Monthly
The report characterizes the recent USD rally as cyclical rather than structural, anticipating a reversal in the second half of 2026 as global growth expectations converge. The authors maintain a bearish outlook on the USD versus major currencies by year-end.
FX Monthly: Just Another Couple Weeks
The May FX Monthly highlights a short-term tactical bid for the USD driven by geopolitical risk premiums and energy shocks, with a structural weakening trend expected to emerge in H2 2026. Central bank divergence is growing as the energy crisis shifts inflation profiles, forcing some banks to accelerate hikes while others merely delay easing.
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