Equinor Capital Markets Day 2026 Update

Equinor's 2026 Capital Markets Day featured increased capex for production growth and higher buybacks. Despite these operational updates, Goldman Sachs maintains a Sell rating, citing long-term bearish expectations for European gas prices (TTF).

Key Takeaways

• 1.Equinor announced a $1bn increase in 2027 capex to accelerate NCS tie-backs and international developments.
• 2.The 2026 buyback target was doubled to $3bn, with a new $2-4bn range-based framework established for 2027+.
• 3.Despite near-term gas tailwinds, the firm maintains a Sell rating due to a bearish long-term view on TTF gas prices.

Table of Contents

• CMD 2026: Key takeaways
• Strong production growth to 2030 with extended visibility from pre-FID projects progress
• 2026 buyback doubled to $3bn; new $2-4bn range-based framework from 2027
• Near-term gas tailwind in 2026/27E but longer-term TTF bearish view remains intact
• A credible de-carbonisation strategy that is consistent with intensified efforts from all EU Big Oils
• Valuation: Sell rated on a bearish TTF long-term view
• Key risks to our Sell thesis/what would make us more positive

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