Global Economics Comment: Spending Headwinds Still to Come on Both Sides of the Pond

Despite current resilience, consumer spending faces significant headwinds in the second half of 2026 due to lagged energy price passthrough, seasonal winter heating demand, and the expiration of US fiscal boosts.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Energy price passthrough, seasonal winter demand, and the expiration of US tax refund boosts represent looming headwinds for consumer spending.
• 2.The US-Iran interim peace deal has reduced upside tail risks for energy prices, though real cash flow stagnation is expected in H2.

Table of Contents

• Global Economics Comment: Spending Headwinds Still to Come on Both Sides of the Pond
• Spending Headwinds Still to Come on Both Sides of the Pond
• Disclosure Appendix

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