Markets and Macro

Tony Pasquariello argues that while market technicals are balanced, the 'tails are fat' due to persistent downside asymmetry from physical commodity disruptions and geopolitical conflict.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Market uncertainty is extremely high with 'fat tails,' meaning extreme outcomes are increasingly likely.
• 2.Physical commodity markets are signaling severe disruption in oil and gas that equity markets have yet to fully price in.
• 3.Hedge fund positioning shows extremely high gross exposure (100th percentile) but modest net exposure (33rd percentile), indicating a high-leverage but hedged environment.

Table of Contents

• market direction
• where the US economy is headed
• from the road
• which leads to this
• plane reading
• Europe
• Asia
• flow-of-funds / positioning
• something I learned this week
• the options market
• a final point / a sign of the times

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