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May 15, 2026

Turkish Central Bank Puts All Policy Options on the Table

Macro ThematicCommoditiesFXMacro Economic IndicatorsFinancials

The Central Bank of Turkey has raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 26% and signaled a flexible 'tighter for longer' policy stance in response to geopolitical risks.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The Turkish Central Bank (CBT) hiked its 2026 year-end inflation forecast to 26%, moving closer to market expectations of 27.53%.
  • 2.Policy stance remains 'tighter for longer' as the bank incorporates the persistent inflationary effects of Middle East geopolitical tensions.
  • 3.The CBT has shifted from inflation ranges to point estimates, citing high uncertainty and supply shocks.

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Authors

Muhammet Mercan

Securities

TRYOil

Themes

Central Bank Communication StrategyGeopolitical Spillover to Inflation

Regions

Middle EastTurkeyUnited StatesIran

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INGMacro ThematicTRYMacro Economic IndicatorsFX

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