What's Next For US Copper Import Tariffs

The US is nearing a decision on potentially imposing a 15% tariff on refined copper imports by 2027, which has already caused significant stockpiling in the US. This policy uncertainty has driven a $400/t spread between COMEX and LME copper prices.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Commerce Secretary is expected to provide a recommendation on refined copper import tariffs to the US President by June 30, 2026.
• 2.US copper markets are experiencing record inventory builds due to tariff-linked stockpiling, creating an arbitrage between COMEX and LME prices.
• 3.The global copper market faces a projected 35kt deficit in 2026 due to mine supply losses, supporting prices regardless of the tariff outcome.

Table of Contents

• What's next for US copper import tariffs
• Where we are now
• What the tariff decision looks like
• How the market has already repositioned
• Meanwhile ex-US inventories have declined sharply
• What happens after the announcement
• Supply outlook remains tight
• Author
• Disclaimer

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