Trump Bessent Visit Northeast Asia US CPI IEA Oil Report

Mizuho's strategy report focuses on the global market impact of the US-Iran conflict, forecasting central bank policy divergence and analyzing diplomatic visits to Northeast Asia.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Central bank policy remains highly dependent on the US-Iran war and its subsequent impact on energy prices.
• 2.The Brent oil futures curve is experiencing unprecedented backwardation as global supply tightens.
• 3.Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan is critical for monitoring BoJ rate hike comments and potential FX intervention levels.

Table of Contents

• Market Performance
• What's priced in?
• Mizuho FX, Policy and Rates Forecasts
• Events ahead
• Week ahead – Trump/Bessent visit Northeast Asia, US CPI, IEA Oil Report
• Will US-Iran find a way to make a deal?
• Japan FX Reserves, BoJ summary of opinions, Bessent visit
• German ZEWs
• US CPI
• US IEA oil market report
• UK Q1 GDP
• Rates Supply
• Current trade ideas
• Broader Risks on our mind
• USD trades
• EUR trades
• GBP trades
• JPY trades
• Credit Monitor
• Equities and other markets

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