Numera Analytics Research Hub

Numera Analytics posits that the 'Hormuz shock' is a primary driver of current geopolitical uncertainty, contributing to persistent inflationary pressures and a decline in G7 consumer sentiment. Despite these headwinds, the institution anticipates that global growth will remain resilient, underpinned by sustained capital expenditure in AI infrastructure and robust U.S. labor demand. A central thesis of their research is the increasing policy divergence between major central banks, necessitated by varying energy dependencies. Consequently, Numera Analytics projects that the ECB will likely adopt a hawkish stance through rate hikes to counter import-driven inflation. In contrast, they expect the Federal Reserve to maintain current policy settings as evidence of a cooling U.S. labor market emerges.