SEB (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB) Research Hub

SEB’s research reveals a strategic dual-focus on macroeconomic volatility and the ongoing structural evolution of sustainable finance. Macro analysis highlights a diagnostic approach to FX markets, leveraging proprietary short-term fair value models to identify misvaluations across G10 currencies including the SEK, EUR, and USD. Concurrently, the firm's outlook on sustainable finance underscores a transition toward energy independence, noting a robust $503bn issuance in sustainable bonds during Q1 2026. However, the institution cautions that significant challenges persist in hard-to-abate sectors, particularly for European aviation firms facing impending margin pressures from the removal of free ETS allowances and strict SAF mandates. This climate suggests a period of industry consolidation and repricing as the market navigates the dual pressures of geopolitical energy risks and stringent green policy requirements. Overall, SEB’s research provides a comprehensive lens for assessing tactical currency positioning and the long-term investment implications of the accelerating green transition.