TPL Advisory Research Hub

TPL Advisory research identifies a pronounced divergence between a resilient U.S. economy, buoyed by semiconductor-led rallies and record AI-related infrastructure spending, and struggling global counterparts. While tech giants like Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon are projected to commit $700 billion to AI, the broader U.S. landscape remains tempered by significant structural headwinds, including record household debt of $19 trillion and an escalating debt-to-GDP ratio. The geopolitical instability stemming from the US-Iran conflict has introduced volatility into energy markets via the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating inflationary pressures from fuel costs. Despite this, the U.S. maintains a relative advantage as a leading energy exporter while benefiting from a violent breakout in capital goods orders. Ultimately, TPL Advisory underscores a complex environment where strong economic momentum is increasingly pressured by rising global bond yields and systemic risks within private credit and sovereign debt.