World Gold Council Research Hub

Research from the World Gold Council highlights a period of significant volatility and structural shifts for the gold market, driven primarily by regulatory changes in India and shifting US macroeconomic conditions. A major headwind emerged from India’s decision to hike gold import duties to 15%, a move expected to reduce 2026 demand by up to 60 tonnes while creating domestic price discounts of nearly $150/oz. Globally, gold prices have fluctuated between US$4,500/oz and US$4,741/oz, influenced by high US Treasury yields near 4.6% and evolving geopolitical developments such as US-Iran negotiations. Despite persistent outflows from physical gold ETFs in North America and Asia, speculative interest in COMEX futures and options has turned increasingly bullish. Technical analysis indicates that the metal is at a 'point of inflection,' successfully testing its 200-day moving average but facing resistance at the US$4,653/oz level. Ultimately, the research underscores a complex interplay between physical demand constraints in the Indian market and broader macroeconomic sentiment tied to US inflation and dollar strength.