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Berenberg’s research highlights a global economic landscape increasingly strained by geopolitical shocks, primarily the US-Iran conflict and resulting energy-led inflation. This instability has triggered a massive sell-off in bond markets, pushing US Treasury yields to 2007 levels and German yields to a 15-year high. In Japan, despite significant currency interventions exceeding $73 billion, the Yen remains under pressure near historic lows, prompting markets to anticipate a potential 25bp hike from the Bank of Japan. Berenberg analysts express particular concern regarding the Eurozone, characterizing the ECB's expected June rate hike as a potential mistake that could deepen an existing economic contraction. Regional data supports this caution, as the Eurozone Composite PMI has fallen to 47.5, with the services sector reaching a 63-month low amid eroding consumer spending power. While the US economy retains some resilience through long-term fixed mortgages, Berenberg forecasts a lower trend growth of 1.5% due to the impact of tariffs and immigration shifts. Ultimately, the research suggests a pivot in financial conditions from pricing in rate cuts to anticipating hikes, shifting the primary risk profile from inflation back toward global growth constraints.

30 reports available

Ecb Decision: Worse To Come Instead Of One-And-Done thumbnail

Ecb Decision: Worse To Come Instead Of One-And-Done

Berenberg·Jun 11, 2026

The ECB raised interest rates by 25bp in a hawkish move that reflects an overreaction to supply-side inflation, increasing the risk of recession. Despite this, there remains a potential path for the ECB to pause if energy prices continue to decline.

Berenberg Capital Market Outlook thumbnail

Berenberg Capital Market Outlook

Berenberg·Jun 26, 2026

Berenberg expects volatile but constructive markets in H2 2026, driven by AI secular growth and expansionary fiscal policies despite geopolitical energy shocks.

Eurozone How Bad Is The Iran Shock thumbnail

Eurozone How Bad Is The Iran Shock

Berenberg·Jun 26, 2026

The Eurozone faces a mild economic impact from rising energy prices following geopolitical tensions in Iran. Unlike the 2022 energy crisis, the current shock is projected to cause only two quarters of stagflation before returning to growth.

BOE First Sign of a Dovish Pivot thumbnail

BOE First Sign of a Dovish Pivot

Berenberg·Jun 18, 2026

The Bank of England is exhibiting a more dovish shift as energy price concerns subside and fears of economic weakness increase. Berenberg forecasts that the BoE will likely resume rate cuts to 3.50% by the end of 2026.

Global Economic Forecasts thumbnail

Global Economic Forecasts

Berenberg·Jun 6, 2026

The global outlook is clouded by the Iran conflict and protectionist US policies, leading to a temporary slowdown in growth. While resilience remains in labor markets, structural issues in China and Europe limit recovery potential.

Germany Where Is The Stimulus thumbnail

Germany Where Is The Stimulus

Berenberg·Jun 6, 2026

The German economy has remained largely stagnant for six years, weighed down by a 12.1% drop in private investment. While substantial public stimulus is now flowing into defense and infrastructure, achieving future growth requires structural reforms to reinvigorate the private sector.

US AI Investment Boom Cannot Sustain Rapid Growth

Berenberg·Jun 11, 2026

Economic Calendar

Berenberg·Jun 6, 2026

Iran War: No Need for an ECB Hike Amid Consumer Misery

Berenberg·Jun 4, 2026

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