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Crédit Agricole CIB’s research emphasizes a cautious approach to G10 FX and macro-thematic positioning amidst evolving geopolitical and inflationary pressures. Proprietary positioning indices highlight that AUD maintains the largest long position despite recent selling, while GBP has returned to being the most significant short following IMM flow activity. Macroeconomic analysis underscores the cooling of energy markets, though core inflation remains a persistent risk with Eurozone and US core targets forecasted at 2.6% and 3.3% respectively. In the Asia-Pacific region, the firm projects a robust GDP recovery for South Korea to 2.6%, supported by semiconductor exports and the phased inclusion of domestic bonds into the FTSE WGBI. Tactically, analysts recommend selling AUD/NZD as interest rate spreads hit 25-year extremes and terms of trade begin to favor New Zealand's export profile. Furthermore, political uncertainty in the UK is viewed through a scenario-based lens, where potential leadership changes within the Labour Party present divergent risks for the British pound's recovery.

104 reports available

FX Weekly thumbnail

FX Weekly

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jul 3, 2026

This report provides weekly G10 FX market analysis, emphasizing that current market expectations for Fed rate hikes are likely too hawkish. It outlines revisions to JPY, AUD, NZD, and CAD forecasts amidst shifting central bank policy trajectories and geopolitical risks.

FX Daily thumbnail

FX Daily

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jul 9, 2026

The market is absorbing US-Iran geopolitical tensions with limited impact on major currencies. Focus remains on central bank hawkishness, specifically the RBNZ's positive stance for the NZD versus the EUR's consolidation.

FX Weekly thumbnail

FX Weekly

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 26, 2026

The report analyzes the USD rally, attributing it to hawkish Fed expectations and unwinding hedges, while suggesting limited further upside due to aggressive market pricing. It highlights risks to the USD including fiscal imbalances and volatility in AI-linked capital flows.

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FX Positioning Update

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 29, 2026

Crédit Agricole CIB reports that the GBP and AUD are currently oversold per their G10 FX PIX 3.0 model. Consequently, the firm has initiated new tactical long positions in GBP/USD and AUD/USD.

Fast FX Fair Value Model thumbnail

Fast FX Fair Value Model

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 29, 2026

The FAST FX model reports a new long EUR/USD trade signal as the pair exceeds 1.5 standard deviations of undervaluation relative to fair value. The model update notes fair value revisions across G10 currencies driven by yield spreads and equity market performance.

Fast FX Fair Value Model thumbnail

Fast FX Fair Value Model

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 29, 2026

The FAST FX model has triggered a long EUR/USD trade following a decline in the pair's valuation relative to its fair value model. The report provides ongoing monitoring of fair value metrics for major currency pairs.

Sell CHF/NOK

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 29, 2026

Emerging Market Weekly Pulse

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jul 8, 2026

China Q2 And June Macro Data Preview

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jul 8, 2026

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