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Crédit Agricole CIB’s recent research highlights a strategic pivot in currency markets, where persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions have reinforced the USD’s status as a high-yielding safe haven. Analysts note that while fundamental data is increasingly driving FX sentiment, specific vulnerabilities persist for the AUD following a spike in unemployment to 4.5% and for the JPY due to ongoing fiscal sustainability concerns. In Asia, the research identifies a significant structural shift in Japan toward "Sanaenomics," which prioritizes strategic domestic investment and labor productivity over traditional fiscal consolidation measures. Emerging market analysis further underscores a divergence in central bank responses, with South Africa’s SARB expected to hike rates to 7.25% while Taiwan and Korea leverage the global AI growth cycle to upgrade GDP forecasts. Politically, the bank maintains a cautious outlook on France’s 2027 election, suggesting that while the Rassemblement National is gaining ground, historical precedents like the "Republican Front" create substantial uncertainty. Overall, the institution’s research direction emphasizes the intersection of macroeconomic fundamentals, evolving policy shifts in Japan, and global central bank responses to inflationary shocks.

87 reports available

Interest Rates Daily thumbnail

Interest Rates Daily

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·Jul 10, 2026

Treasury refunding auctions have eased recent bond market sell-offs. The strategists recommend a 10-30Y curve flattener trade.

Fx Weekly thumbnail

Fx Weekly

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·Jul 10, 2026

This report analyzes the G10 FX market outlook, highlighting the persistence of low FX volatility amidst Middle East tensions and the continued dominance of USD-funded carry trades.

Interest Rates Daily thumbnail

Interest Rates Daily

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·Jul 7, 2026

This report covers the latest developments in US and European interest rates, highlighting the Treasury's 3Y note auction and upcoming Fed FOMC minutes. It also features commentary on Federal Reserve policy communication and provides extensive data dashboards for swap curves and inflation.

Interest Rates Daily thumbnail

Interest Rates Daily

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·Jul 3, 2026

Front-end rates fell after weaker-than-expected NFP data led investors to delay expectations for the first Fed rate hike to December. Markets remain cautious ahead of USD119bn in upcoming Treasury supply.

USD: Only Half A Smile But Still An Asymmetric Reaction Function thumbnail

USD: Only Half A Smile But Still An Asymmetric Reaction Function

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·Jul 6, 2026

The USD has lost upward momentum as market participants reassess hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. The report anticipates an asymmetric FX reaction function where the USD is more sensitive to downside data surprises than positive ones.

FX Market Outlook: USD Still The King thumbnail

FX Market Outlook: USD Still The King

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·Jul 1, 2026

The report maintains a bullish outlook on the USD, driven by US exceptionalism and AI-investment capital inflows. It remains cautious on EUR, GBP, and JPY, while highlighting carry trades and gold as key tactical opportunities.

Hong Kong On The Slow Lane To 7.85

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·Jul 2, 2026

Interest Rates Daily

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·Jul 1, 2026

FX Daily

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·Jun 30, 2026

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