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HSBC analysts Janet Henry and Bethan Ellis highlight the profound economic risks associated with a potential 12-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing a growing disconnect between resilient equity markets and wary bond markets. While strong earnings support equities, bond markets are increasingly reacting to the dual threats of persistent inflation and diminished growth. In light of these risks, HSBC has revised its Brent crude forecast upward to $95 per barrel and anticipates rate hikes from the ECB, BoE, and various emerging market central banks. The institution's core thesis advocates for a proactive 'stitch in time' approach, urging central banks to act immediately as insurance against long-term supply-side pressures. This strategic shift is designed to avoid repeating the policy errors observed in 2022, focusing on early intervention to manage inflationary volatility. Ultimately, HSBC’s research underscores a cautious outlook where geopolitical disruptions necessitate aggressive monetary responses to stabilize global markets.

80 reports available

Global Rates Trade Tracker thumbnail

Global Rates Trade Tracker

HSBC·Jul 10, 2026

This report provides a 12-month performance and history tracker of HSBC's recommended trade ideas in global fixed income and rates markets. It organizes recommendations into recently opened, active, and closed positions with detailed rationale and target/stop levels.

H2 Outlook Multi-Asset Direction thumbnail

H2 Outlook Multi-Asset Direction

HSBC·Jul 8, 2026

HSBC maintains a maximum overweight stance on equities for H2 2026, dismissing current AI and geopolitical concerns. They expect a moderation of 'US exceptionalism' by late Q3 and have shifted from EM equities to a preference for eurozone equities.

H2 Outlook Multi-Asset Direction thumbnail

H2 Outlook Multi-Asset Direction

HSBC·Jul 8, 2026

HSBC maintains a bullish 'risk-on' stance entering H2 2026, keeping a maximum overweight allocation to global equities. The strategy involves rotating from EM equities to eurozone equities while anticipating an eventual softening of US economic exceptionalism in late Q3.

FOMC Minutes Judgement Required thumbnail

FOMC Minutes Judgement Required

HSBC·Jul 8, 2026

The July 2026 HSBC report analyzes the June FOMC minutes, noting a debate among policymakers regarding the necessity of future rate hikes to control inflation. HSBC maintains a steady policy rate outlook for 2026 and 2027 despite market expectations for hikes.

Global PMI Data Review thumbnail

Global PMI Data Review

HSBC·Jul 7, 2026

The global composite PMI edged to 52.0 in June, with services strengthening while manufacturing momentum softened. Key indicators suggest that manufacturing output growth has likely peaked amidst cooling global demand.

Breaking the Data: The Billions of AI Consumer Surplus thumbnail

Breaking the Data: The Billions of AI Consumer Surplus

HSBC·Jul 9, 2026

Generative AI is generating a significant consumer surplus, estimated to reach USD250bn in the US by 2027. This surplus, driven by saved time and money, is expected to reshape consumer spending habits.

Digital Assets Pulse

HSBC·Jul 9, 2026

GEMs Financials June Market Review

HSBC·Jul 3, 2026

European Economics: The Doves Of Peace

HSBC·Jul 2, 2026

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