A Bigger Round Of Dutch Pension Transitions Puts Curve Steepening Back In Play

The scheduled transition of over €900bn in Dutch pension assets in 2027 is expected to exert upward pressure on the EUR swap curve. Analysts estimate a 10-20bp steepening effect for the 10s30s segment as funds adjust their duration requirements.

Key Takeaways

• 1.More than €900bn in Dutch pension assets are slated to transition in 2027, significantly exceeding the €600bn recorded in 2026.
• 2.The transition process is expected to exert 10-20bp of additional upward pressure on the 10s30s EUR swap curve over the coming months.

Table of Contents

• Markets digested the first batch well, but much more to come
• Significantly more pension assets are scheduled to transition in 2027
• Bonds still in high demand in the first quarter of 2026
• Strong demand for Dutch government bonds in 1Q26
• We estimate a 10-20bp steeper EUR swap curve on the back of the reforms

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