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Rates Strategy Research Hub

Current global rates strategy reflects a significant divergence in policy trajectories, with New Zealand and Australian markets pricing in hikes to 3.15% and 4.26% while the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut toward a 3.14% floor. In the US, Treasury refunding sizes are currently maintained, but expectations for gradual coupon auction increases starting in late 2026 have led to tightening swap spreads and focused attention on the 2y-7y curve. European bond sentiment remains constructive, highlighted by the Italian-German 10Y spread reaching an 18-year low of 60bp and record demand for Italy’s 15Y bond syndication. Japan’s 30y JGB market faces a complex outlook where historically high yields of 3.635% are balanced against fiscal expansion risks and seasonal demand weakness from insurers. Strategy recommendations in the Japanese sector favor asset swaps to capture carry while hedging against interest rate risk stemming from political catalysts. Globally, fiscal expansion concerns continue to drive yield dynamics, ranging from elevated German 30Y yields to shifting risk premiums between Italian and French sovereign debt ahead of the 2027 elections.

143 reports available

Japan Rates Strategy: Fading Inflation Risk But Chasing Fiscal Risk thumbnail

Japan Rates Strategy: Fading Inflation Risk But Chasing Fiscal Risk

Morgan Stanley·Jul 3, 2026

The report highlights a growing fiscal risk premium in long-end JGBs amid fading inflation concerns. Strategists recommend long positions in 5y JGBs while maintaining steepeners on the curve to navigate expected summer seasonality.

Rates Strategy Weekly thumbnail

Rates Strategy Weekly

Mizuho Securities·Jul 6, 2026

This report analyzes the impact of the Takaichi administration's reflationary policy stance on Japan's interest rate environment. Mizuho expects short-term bear-steepening of the JGB curve but maintains a baseline scenario of limited long-term rate increases.

30y JGB Auction Preview thumbnail

30y JGB Auction Preview

Mizuho Securities·Jul 6, 2026

This report previews the upcoming 30y JGB auction, identifying fiscal policy concerns and seasonality as primary risks while noting the attractiveness of current yields for long-term investors.

Interest Rates Strategy thumbnail

Interest Rates Strategy

UBS·Jul 2, 2026

The report argues that bond yields are poised to trend lower as the initial shock of high energy prices fades and central bank rhetoric begins to soften. UBS favors extending duration in European bonds while maintaining a shorter-term focus for the US and UK markets.

US Rates Strategy Mid Year Outlook thumbnail

US Rates Strategy Mid Year Outlook

UBS·Jun 27, 2026

UBS projects the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes through end-2026, leading to lower yields. Strategists recommend 2s/10s curve steepeners and 5-year TIPS longs.

20y JGB Auction Preview thumbnail

20y JGB Auction Preview

Mizuho Securities·Jun 24, 2026

Mizuho previews the 20-year JGB auction on 25 June, balancing attractive yield levels against persistent fiscal deterioration concerns. Analysts suggest cautious positioning, specifically exploring tactical 20s30s steepeners and 20y ASW trades.

20y JGB Auction Preview

Mizuho Securities·Jun 24, 2026

20y JGB Auction Preview

Mizuho Securities·Jun 24, 2026

30y JGB Auction Preview

Mizuho Securities·Jun 12, 2026

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