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Mizuho Securities’ research highlights a pivot in Japan’s macroeconomic landscape, characterized by expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in June 2026 amid signals of faster price pass-throughs and 1Q real GDP growth of 0.5%. Although April CPI decelerated to 1.9% due to government subsidies, Mizuho forecasts a reacceleration to over 2.5% by 2027, driven by high crude oil prices exceeding $100/bbl and the ongoing Iran conflict. In the bond market, the institution notes that 10-year JGB yields have surged to 2.80%, prompting recommendations for tactical longs and asset swaps at current attractive yield levels like the 3.715% seen in the 20-year sector. Fiscal policy remains a critical theme, with a proposed JPY3 trillion supplementary budget being weighed against legal constraints to maintain net debt supply neutrality. Furthermore, Mizuho's modeling suggests that while the government's average coupon rate will rise to 1.7% by FY2030, debt sustainability remains achievable if nominal GDP growth persists between 2.5% and 4.5%. Overall, the research depicts a market transitioning to a higher-yield environment where domestic insurers and regional banks are increasingly stepping in to absorb supply.

130 reports available

Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch thumbnail

Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch

Mizuho Securities·Jun 22, 2026

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1% while continuing to taper JGB purchases. Mizuho economists expect a terminal rate of 1.5% with further hikes occurring biannually.

Fixed Income Japan: BOJ Policy Update thumbnail

Fixed Income Japan: BOJ Policy Update

Mizuho Securities·Jun 17, 2026

The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate to 1% amid improved economic conditions and a strategic 'hands-off' approach from the Takaichi administration. Mizuho forecasts a terminal rate of 1.5% with further hikes occurring at a semi-annual cadence.

May JSDA Trading Volume of Over-the-Counter Bonds thumbnail

May JSDA Trading Volume of Over-the-Counter Bonds

Mizuho Securities·Jun 22, 2026

This report details May 2026 trading volumes for Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), noting significant dip-buying activity by trust banks and foreign investors despite rising yields. Institutional positioning varied by sector, with insurers and agricultural lenders cautious due to fiscal concerns.

May JSDA Trading Volume of Over-the-Counter Bonds thumbnail

May JSDA Trading Volume of Over-the-Counter Bonds

Mizuho Securities·Jun 22, 2026

The report analyzes May 2026 JSDA trading volume data, highlighting how major Japanese institutional investors reacted to rising JGB yields through dip-buying. Trust banks emerged as the primary net buyers, while insurers turned net sellers of super-long JGBs.

Nationwide CPI For May thumbnail

Nationwide CPI For May

Mizuho Securities·Jun 19, 2026

Japan's nationwide CPI showed headline inflation rise to +1.5% in May, while core gauges remained largely stable. Analysts expect inflation to reaccelerate later this year as upstream cost pressures overcome temporary energy subsidy impacts.

Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch thumbnail

Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch

Mizuho Securities·Jun 15, 2026

Mizuho forecasts the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate to 1.0% in June 2026, ultimately targeting 1.5% as inflation pressure mounts from global energy costs.

Rates Strategy Weekly

Mizuho Securities·Jun 15, 2026

BOJ Expected To Hike At June Meeting

Mizuho Securities·Jun 9, 2026

Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account Surplus to Fund Consumption Tax Cut, FILP Bonds for Increased Defense Spending

Mizuho Securities·Jun 11, 2026

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