Macro Weekly

The report analyzes Japan's recent economic indicators, including cooling Tokyo CPI and rebounding industrial production, while forecasting a BOJ rate hike to 1% in June 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Mizuho expects the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates to 1% at the June 2026 meeting as its baseline scenario.
• 2.Tokyo CPI inflation for May slowed to +1.4% YoY, though a pick-up is expected later in 2026 due to higher energy costs.
• 3.Japan's industrial production rose by 0.8% MoM in April, driven largely by AI-related investment trends.

Table of Contents

• Review of key indicators and events
• Economic indicators
• BOJ-related events
• Economic outlook (as of 1 June)
• Comments on real GDP outlook
• Comments on CPI outlook
• Comments on domestic rates outlook

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