Security

USDJPY Research and Market Analysis

USD/JPY continues to maintain its primary uptrend, consistently testing the critical 160.0 intervention threshold despite official efforts to curb the currency's depreciation. The pair's strength is largely driven by the US dollar’s role as a high-yielding safe haven, supported by persistent inflation and geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Conversely, the Japanese yen faces significant pressure from concerns regarding fiscal sustainability and lackluster demand observed in JGB auctions. While quantitative fair value assessments suggest the pair is currently trading near equilibrium, internal Japanese market signals are more concerning, specifically the recent surge in 10-year break-even inflation rates. These developments, alongside potential declines in market liquidity, heighten the risk of a disorderly rise in yields that may further destabilize the exchange rate. Consequently, research remains focused on the interplay between US dollar trajectories and Japan's evolving fiscal policy backdrop.

226 reports available

USD/JPY Known Unknowns thumbnail

USD/JPY Known Unknowns

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jul 10, 2026

USD/JPY is currently trading near fair value, making central bank intervention counter-productive. Our analysis suggests an upward trend toward a median fair value of 170.45 driven by structural macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

Japan Macro Watch thumbnail

Japan Macro Watch

UBS·Jul 3, 2026

UBS expects a BoJ rate hike in October, supported by strong AI-related demand, resilient industrial production, and rising inflation expectations. However, uncertainty regarding government fiscal policy and potential pressure on central bank independence adds risk.

JPY Monthly thumbnail

JPY Monthly

MUFG·Jul 2, 2026

The USD/JPY reached 40-year highs as Fed rate-hike expectations bolstered the dollar. Despite a 25bp BOJ rate hike to 1.00%, market skepticism regarding the sustainability of tightening keeps the yen under pressure.

Historical Highs For Japanese Equities And Ongoing JPY Weakness thumbnail

Historical Highs For Japanese Equities And Ongoing JPY Weakness

Citi·Jul 7, 2026

The record-high performance of Japanese equities is triggering significant JPY-sale hedging, creating persistent downward pressure on the currency. Citi maintains that unless the pace of equity gains slows or monetary policy is normalized, the JPY is likely to remain weak.

Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch thumbnail

Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch

Mizuho Securities·Jun 22, 2026

The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1% in June and outlined a plan to taper JGB purchases. Mizuho economists anticipate further hikes to a terminal rate of 1.5% by mid-2027.

Key Currency Views thumbnail

Key Currency Views

J.P. Morgan·Jul 3, 2026

J.P. Morgan maintains a 'Bullish beta, bullish dollar' outlook, favoring high-yield EM energy importers and carry strategies. While the USD faces consolidation pressure, the firm remains strategically constructive on the currency pending further economic data.

Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch

Mizuho Securities·Jun 22, 2026

Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch

Mizuho Securities·Jun 15, 2026

Japan Macro Weekly

Mizuho Securities·Jun 15, 2026

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