Japan Macro Weekly

Mizuho Securities forecasts a BOJ rate hike to 1.00% in June 2026 following better-than-expected April industrial production data (+0.8% MoM). While Tokyo CPI inflation cooled to 1.4% in May, the report anticipates a renewed pickup in the second half of 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Mizuho's baseline scenario forecasts the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike to 1.0% in June 2026, assuming Middle East tensions stabilize.
• 2.Japan's industrial production rose 0.8% MoM in April, exceeding market forecasts, driven by AI-related investment in electrical machinery.
• 3.Tokyo's May CPI headline inflation slowed to +1.4% YoY, partly due to water fee waivers, though a pickup is expected by summer/autumn.

Table of Contents

• Global economy and finance: Weekly watch (1 June)
• Review of key indicators and events
• Economic indicators
• BOJ-related events
• Economic outlook (as of 1 June)
• Comments on real GDP outlook
• Comments on CPI outlook
• Comments on domestic rates outlook
• Important Disclosure Information
• Analyst Certification
• Disclaimer

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial