Security

EURJPY Research and Market Analysis

Research into EURJPY highlights a complex tug-of-war between the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish pivot and broader global macroeconomic pressures. Rising energy prices and supply chain constraints have pushed April’s Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) to 4.9% YoY, leading analysts to identify a June rate hike as a baseline scenario. Despite this shift and approximately JPY 10 trillion in currency interventions, the Yen continues to struggle with fiscal sustainability concerns and underwhelming JGB auctions. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically threats to the Strait of Hormuz, have fostered a risk-off environment that bolsters the USD as a safe haven while impacting Yen crosses. While the Euro remains sensitive to broader risk sentiment, the divergence between the Fed’s influence on global yields and the BoJ’s gradual normalization path remains the primary driver. Long-term forecasts suggest the BoJ will target a 1.5% terminal policy rate by mid-2027, even in the face of soft domestic consumption and potential political resistance.

27 reports available

Japan FX Key Drivers Boosting EUR JPY

Citi·Jun 23, 2026

Citi Research analyzes the structural shifts in EUR/JPY price formation, highlighting that Japanese equity performance has replaced interest rate spreads as a primary driver. The EUR/JPY appears slightly undervalued by current models, potentially due to official Japanese JPY-buying interventions.

An Analysis Of The EUR/JPY Price Formation Mechanism

Citigroup Inc.·Jun 18, 2026

This report analyzes the price formation mechanism of the EUR/JPY pair using a two-tiered model, concluding that it is significantly influenced by Japanese equity performance and risk preferences. The pair appears overvalued and potentially more vulnerable to risk asset corrections than USD/JPY.

Japan Macro Weekly

Mizuho Securities·Jun 1, 2026

Mizuho Securities forecasts a BOJ rate hike to 1.00% in June 2026 following better-than-expected April industrial production data (+0.8% MoM). While Tokyo CPI inflation cooled to 1.4% in May, the report anticipates a renewed pickup in the second half of 2026.

Closing Short EUR/JPY Via A Put Spread

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 10, 2026

Crédit Agricole CIB is closing its short EUR/JPY put spread trade following an out-of-the-money expiry and a -2.0% loss. The strategy failed due to JPY weakness driven by energy-related terms of trade shocks.

Closing Short EUR JPY Via A Put Spread

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·Jun 9, 2026

Crédit Agricole CIB has closed its short EUR/JPY trade, executed via a 6M put spread, after the position expired out of the money with a 2% loss. The strategy failed due to JPY weakness driven by a negative terms of trade shock following the US-Iran war.

Fast FX: Closing Long EUR/JPY Trade

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 9, 2026

Crédit Agricole CIB reports the closure of a long EUR/JPY trade initiated on June 1, 2026, which resulted in a -0.63% loss. This follows the firm's systematic FAST FX strategy.

EUR: Two Drivers, One Signal

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 2, 2026

Fast FX: Buy EUR/JPY

Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank·Jun 1, 2026

Will Data and Central Bank Speakers Change Market Focus

Crédit Agricole CIB·May 28, 2026

All reports

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