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Mizuho Securities Research Hub
Mizuho Securities’ research highlights a pivot in Japan’s macroeconomic landscape, characterized by expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in June 2026 amid signals of faster price pass-throughs and 1Q real GDP growth of 0.5%. Although April CPI decelerated to 1.9% due to government subsidies, Mizuho forecasts a reacceleration to over 2.5% by 2027, driven by high crude oil prices exceeding $100/bbl and the ongoing Iran conflict. In the bond market, the institution notes that 10-year JGB yields have surged to 2.80%, prompting recommendations for tactical longs and asset swaps at current attractive yield levels like the 3.715% seen in the 20-year sector. Fiscal policy remains a critical theme, with a proposed JPY3 trillion supplementary budget being weighed against legal constraints to maintain net debt supply neutrality. Furthermore, Mizuho's modeling suggests that while the government's average coupon rate will rise to 1.7% by FY2030, debt sustainability remains achievable if nominal GDP growth persists between 2.5% and 4.5%. Overall, the research depicts a market transitioning to a higher-yield environment where domestic insurers and regional banks are increasingly stepping in to absorb supply.
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Macro Weekly Japan
Mizuho Securities · May 11, 2026
Japan Macro Update
Mizuho Securities · Jul 10, 2026
Reasons Behind the Takaichi Administration’s Distrust of Markets
Mizuho Securities · Jul 9, 2026
Reasons Behind the Takaichi Administration’s Distrust of Markets
Mizuho Securities · Jul 9, 2026
Japan Macro Wage Trends
Mizuho Securities · Jul 8, 2026
Japan Macro Wage Growth Outlook
Mizuho Securities · Jul 8, 2026
Implications Of Output Gap And Potential Growth Rate For Monetary Policy And Public Private Investments
Mizuho Securities · Jul 7, 2026
Implications Of Output Gap And Potential Growth Rate For Monetary Policy And Public-Private Investments
Mizuho Securities · Jul 7, 2026
30y JGB Auction Preview
Mizuho Securities · Jul 6, 2026
Rates Strategy Weekly
Mizuho Securities · Jul 6, 2026
Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch
Mizuho Securities · Jul 6, 2026
Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch
Mizuho Securities · Jul 6, 2026
Japan Macro Update
Mizuho Securities · Jul 2, 2026
Japan Macro: BOJ Tankan Analysis
Mizuho Securities · Jul 2, 2026
June BOJ Tankan Report
Mizuho Securities · Jul 1, 2026
Impact of Public-Private Growth Investment on Japan's Potential Growth and BOJ Policy
Mizuho Securities · Jul 1, 2026
10y JGB Auction Preview
Mizuho Securities · Jul 1, 2026
10y JGB Auction Preview
Mizuho Securities · Jul 1, 2026
Japan Macro: Impact Of Public-Private Growth Investment
Mizuho Securities · Jul 1, 2026
Impact of BOJ Monetary Policy and Consumption Tax Cut on CPI Ex Institutional Factors
Mizuho Securities · Jun 30, 2026
May Industrial Production
Mizuho Securities · Jun 30, 2026
Rates Strategy Weekly
Mizuho Securities · Jun 29, 2026
Rates Strategy Weekly
Mizuho Securities · Jun 29, 2026
Japan Macro Weekly
Mizuho Securities · Jun 29, 2026