Mizuho Securities
May 21, 2026
Is BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Right to Be Worried About Price Pass-Through
Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsConsumer StaplesEnergy
The report validates BOJ Governor Ueda's concerns about rapid price pass-through in Japan, noting that external pressure from the US and domestic data support a June rate hike.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Potential US pressure on the Japanese government may remove hurdles for the BOJ to proceed with interest rate normalization as early as June.
- 2.Empirical evidence from CGPI data suggests that price pass-through from upstream to midstream sectors is occurring faster than the BOJ's previous models predicted.
- 3.Mizuho forecasts that core-core CPI inflation will rise to between +2.5% and +3.0% by mid-to-late 2027 due to energy price shocks.
Table of Contents
- Is BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda right to be worried about the speed of price pass-through from upstream to midstream sectors?
- Important Disclosure Information
- Analyst Certification
- Disclaimer
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Authors
Yusuke Matsuo
Securities
JGB Linkers
Themes
Inflation Pass-Through MechanicsMonetary Policy NormalizationUS-Japan Diplomatic Influence on Policy
Regions
Asia PacificJapanUnited States