Medium-Term Projections of BOJ Bond Holdings

Mizuho analyzes four scenarios for the BOJ's bond-tapering plans, projecting that holdings will decline to approximately 50% of their peak or 40% of nominal GDP by FY2030. The analysis suggests the BOJ may halt or slow tapering after March 2027 to ensure market stability.

Key Takeaways

• 1.BOJ bond holdings are projected to decline significantly to roughly 50% of their peak level by the end of FY2030 across all tested tapering scenarios.
• 2.The Bank of Japan is likely to reduce monthly JGB purchases to approximately JPY2.1 trillion by the Jan–Mar 2027 period.
• 3.Mizuho expects the BOJ to likely halt or slow the pace of tapering from April 2027 onward to maintain market predictability and functioning.

Table of Contents

• Medium-term projections of BOJ bond holdings under various tapering scenarios
• Estimating BOJ bond holdings as percentage of nominal GDP
• Outlook for BOJ JGB purchases from Apr–Jun 2027 onward
• Important Disclosure Information
• Analyst Certification
• Disclaimer

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