Medium-Term Projections Of BOJ Bond Holdings Under Various Tapering Scenarios

Mizuho projects BOJ JGB holdings will fall to the JPY300 trillion range (approx. 40% of GDP) by FY2030 under various tapering scenarios. The report suggests the BOJ may halt or slow tapering after March 2027 as market functioning improves.

Key Takeaways

• 1.BOJ bond holdings are projected to decline to approximately 50% of their peak level by the end of FY2030 across several tapering scenarios.
• 2.The BOJ is likely to maintain its current tapering pace of JPY200 billion per quarter through Jan-Mar 2027, reducing monthly purchases to JPY2.1 trillion.
• 3.From April 2027, the BOJ may consider halting further tapering or slowing the pace, given improvements in market functioning and previous meaningful reductions in holdings.

Table of Contents

• Estimating BOJ bond holdings as percentage of nominal GDP
• Outlook for BOJ JGB purchases from Apr–Jun 2027 onward
• Important Disclosure Information
• Analyst Certification
• Disclaimer

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