Constructive and Cautious Global Macro Outlook

Morgan Stanley maintains a constructive but cautious stance on global markets, favoring equities despite energy-related tail risks. While AI-driven investment and resilient consumption support growth, a potential oil price spike to $150/bbl remains a critical recessionary threat.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The global macro outlook is driven by positive structural factors like AI-driven capex and wealth-driven consumption, balanced against the risk of persistent energy shocks.
• 2.Morgan Stanley remains overweight on equities as earnings remain robust, even amid oil-related turbulence and shifts in monetary policy.
• 3.Central banks are shifting toward less accommodation, with the Fed expected to hold rates until year-end and the BoJ likely to hike in June.

Table of Contents

• Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro
• Constructive and Cautious, Not Complacent Amid a Fluid Outlook
• What I'm Reading This Week
• What We Are Watching This Week
• MONDAY, MAY 18
• TUESDAY, MAY 19
• WEDNESDAY, MAY 20
• THURSDAY, MAY 21
• FRIDAY, MAY 22
• Disclosure Section

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