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Morgan Stanley

July 7, 2026

EM Can Ride Out the USD

Macro ThematicFXRates CreditRates Govt BondsEnergy

Emerging Market (EM) currencies continue to demonstrate resilience against the USD. Research indicates that global risk appetite, rather than the DXY or US yield fluctuations, is the primary determinant of EM performance.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.EM vs G3 total returns are driven by risk appetite, not the DXY.
  • 2.EM FX continues to outperform, delivering 5.1% total returns vs G3 ytd.

Table of Contents

  • Key Takeaways
  • Must reads from Global EM Strategy
  • Global EM Strategy
  • Local markets trades overview
  • EM Carry Trade Doesn't Depend on USD Cycle
  • What can we say about positioning?
  • Required reading
  • Trade Table
  • Local Markets Snapshots
  • AXJ Local Markets
  • CEEMEA Local Markets
  • Valuation Methodology and Risks

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