MS Capex Tracker: Stronger and Broader Exiting Q1 Earnings

Morgan Stanley's Capex Tracker shows US NTM capex plans accelerating to +38% YoY post-Q1 earnings, indicating a broad-based capex upcycle.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US Next-Twelve-Months (NTM) capex plans have accelerated to +38% YoY following Q1 earnings, well above the 20% growth rate seen at the start of 2026.
• 2.Capex strength is broadening, with 14 of 16 tracked verticals calling for growth acceleration, supporting the thesis for an extended US capex upcycle.
• 3.US Capital Goods intentions show a 'V-shaped' recovery (+19% YoY) as companies relocate production to the US to mitigate tariffs and rising logistics costs.

Table of Contents

• MS Capex Tracker
• Turning to the respective end markets
• The Attractive view on US Industrials
• Disclosure Section
• Analyst Certification
• Global Research Conflict Management Policy
• Important Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies
• STOCK RATINGS
• Global Stock Ratings Distribution
• Analyst Stock Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Other Important Disclosures

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