Security

EURGBP Research Hub

Current research identifies EURGBP as remaining in overvaluation territory according to quantitative models, although the pair currently lacks the extreme z-score needed for an unstable regime. Analysts at UBS forecast a decline to 0.86 through 2027, highlighting that the pound's higher carry makes it a more attractive total return play than the euro despite expected ECB rate hikes in June. UK economic indicators have recently outperformed expectations, though the currency remains sensitive to political risk following recent local election results and potential leadership challenges. Institutional views generally favor the US dollar over both currencies due to growth differentials, yet Sterling's political risk premium is expected to diminish as fiscal policy remains consistent. Furthermore, while the pound is currently described as 'unloved' by investors, recovering global demand through ETF flows suggests a stabilizing outlook. Ultimately, the synthesis of these reports points toward a bearish trajectory for EURGBP as the pound leverages its carry advantage and resilient economic data.

25 reports available

G10 FX Daily Report

J.P. Morgan·Jul 1, 2026

This report outlines G10 FX strategy heading into U.S. payrolls, favoring tactical USD longs despite recent month-end volatility. It highlights a cautious approach to JPY and commodity currencies while monitoring central bank rhetoric.

FX Daily

ING Bank N.V.·Jul 7, 2026

The report highlights that the upcoming court ruling on Marine Le Pen is not expected to significantly impact the Euro, as markets have largely priced in an RN win. Meanwhile, FX markets remain quiet with a focus on Japanese intervention risks and upcoming central bank updates.

FX Daily: Focus Remains on Yen and Sterling

ING Bank N.V.·Jun 23, 2026

This report examines currency market movements driven by US dollar strength, potential Japanese Yen intervention, and political leadership changes in the UK. Analysts also highlight a dovish turn from the ECB and rate-cutting expectations in Hungary.

EURGBP Stable Exchange Rate Expected

UBS·May 25, 2026

UBS expects EURGBP to stabilize at 0.86 through mid-2027 as UK political uncertainty fades and economic data surprises to the upside. The GBP is preferred for total returns due to its 2% yield carry advantage over the EUR.

Global FX Trader: Divergence Dialed Up

Goldman Sachs·May 24, 2026

The report highlights a 'Divergence Dialed Up' theme where the US Dollar benefits from AI-driven growth and energy self-sufficiency while Europe and Asia face headwinds. It provides updated FX forecasts for G10 and EM currencies amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

FX Daily Headline Rollercoaster Continues

ING·May 28, 2026

FX markets are currently trapped in a headline-to-headline environment driven by US-Iran tensions, despite underlying hawkish macro support for the USD. Meanwhile, the GBP has shed its political risk premium and CEE currencies face divergent interest rate outlooks.

GS Morning: Global Macro, US CPI Preview, and Trump-Xi Meeting

Goldman Sachs·May 12, 2026

GS Morning update: Thoughts From the Floor and European Views

Goldman Sachs·May 18, 2026

Political Drama in Westminster and the GBP

Crédit Agricole CIB·May 21, 2026

All reports

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