Security
USDCAD Currency Research Hub
The USDCAD pair is currently navigating a dollar-positive global macro environment driven by US inflation upside surprises and a hawkish Federal Reserve reaction function. While Canada's headline CPI is projected to rise toward 3.1% due to energy costs, core inflation has notably moderated to 2.05%, prompting institutions like BofA and RBC to expect the Bank of Canada to maintain its policy rate through 2026. Despite the typical support of high oil prices, the CAD remains under pressure as market participants price out potential rate hikes and the USD benefits from a persistent yield advantage. Technical analysis suggests a range-bound outlook for USDCAD between 1.3500 and 1.3900, supported by the DXY index’s momentum toward its 99.25/50 gap target. Geopolitical risks, including stalled US-Iran negotiations and global PMI contractions, further reinforce the USD’s safe-haven status relative to the Loonie. Overall, research indicates that while some analysts hold a medium-term bearish USD view, the short-term trajectory is defined by Canadian yield curve steepening and US fiscal concerns fueling bond yields.
33 reports available
Daily FX Update
The G10 FX market remains tentative with a quiet USD, while the AUD outperforms on hawkish RBA rhetoric and the CAD weakens ahead of trade talks. Geopolitics in the Middle East and softening global bond yields are the primary macro drivers.
G10 FX Daily Report
The report highlights a cautious, tactical approach to G10 FX markets ahead of month-end rebalancing and US payroll data. The author maintains a largely neutral USD stance while managing specific tactical shorts and longs in JPY, CAD, and GBP.
Daily FX Update
The USD is weakening in thin holiday conditions as optimism over a US/Iran deal boosts risk appetite across G10 currencies. Commodity-linked currencies and equities are generally stronger, while oil prices have retreated sharply.
Daily FX Update
The US dollar is gaining broadly as renewed US-Iran hostilities trigger risk aversion ahead of crucial US PCE inflation data. The Canadian dollar has weakened to new local lows due to both geopolitical sentiment and widening yield spreads.
Daily FX Update
The USD maintains a firm base due to widened yield spreads, while the CAD struggles against robust US data. The EUR leads G10 performance ahead of upcoming ECB policy decisions.
AUD/NZD: The US-Iran Trade
Crédit Agricole maintains a bearish outlook on AUD/NZD targeting 1.16, citing a narrowing interest rate differential and easing oil price pressures from a potential US-Iran ceasefire extension.
Daily FX Update
Daily FX Update
Bank of Canada Preview: On Hold Amid Technical Recession and Oil Risks
All reports
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Daily FX Update
Scotiabank · Jun 2, 2026
G10 FX Daily Report
JPMorganChase · Jun 26, 2026
Daily FX Update
Scotiabank · May 26, 2026
Daily FX Update
Scotiabank · May 28, 2026
Daily FX Update
Scotiabank · Jun 4, 2026
AUD/NZD: The US-Iran Trade
Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank · May 29, 2026
Daily FX Update
Scotiabank · May 25, 2026
Daily FX Update
Scotiabank · Jun 1, 2026
Bank of Canada Preview: On Hold Amid Technical Recession and Oil Risks
Bank of America · Jun 4, 2026
Daily FX Update
Scotiabank Global FX Strategy · May 14, 2026
Daily FX Update
Scotiabank · May 11, 2026
USDCAD Upside Is Capped
UBS · May 25, 2026
G10 FX Daily Report
J.P. Morgan · Jun 4, 2026
FX Daily New Ceasefire Still Many Open Questions
ING · May 29, 2026
Daily FX Update
Scotiabank Global FX Strategy · May 19, 2026
Daily FX Update
Scotiabank · May 13, 2026
Daily FX Update
Scotiabank · May 21, 2026
Market Rhythm
EFG Bank AG · Jun 9, 2026
CAD Weekly Soundbites (Rates and FX)
RBC Capital Markets · May 18, 2026
The Macro Landscape Turns More Dollar-Positive
J.P. Morgan · May 19, 2026
FX Daily: USD - No Reason to Smile
Crédit Agricole CIB · May 11, 2026
G10 FX Daily Report
J.P. Morgan · Jun 1, 2026
Weekly CAD Update
Scotiabank · May 10, 2026
FOMC Recap
Scotiabank · Jun 17, 2026