Topic

Stagflation Research

The current research landscape highlights persistent stagflationary concerns as global markets grapple with elevated energy costs and mounting growth risks. Despite tentative geopolitical de-escalation between the US and Iran, oil prices are expected to remain floor-bound at approximately $90/bbl due to depleted reserves, sustaining inflationary pressures. While central banks like the ECB and Fed remain hawkish in the near term to combat structural labor shortages, research from UBS suggests a transition toward rate cuts in late 2026 as growth eventually slows. This environment has reinforced the role of gold as a critical strategic hedge, with price targets projected as high as $5,500/oz amid US fiscal deficit concerns. Equity markets remain buoyed by AI-driven growth and record buybacks, yet Goldman Sachs warns that record hedge fund leverage of 323% and narrow market leadership create a reflexive environment sensitive to liquidity shifts. Investors are increasingly advised to pivot toward quality short- and medium-maturity bonds to capture yield before the anticipated shift in the interest rate cycle.

5784 reports available

Goal Asset Allocation Balancing Micro Tailwinds And Macro Headwinds

Goldman Sachs·Jun 14, 2026

This report outlines a balanced tactical strategy amid macro headwinds and micro tailwinds. It highlights late-cycle risks, elevated equity valuations, and a shift towards reflationary pricing.

Diverging Markets And Converging Talks

Rabobank·Jun 22, 2026

Financial markets are currently defined by a divergence between resilient equity performance and caution in bond markets, fueled by geopolitical energy shocks and varying central bank stances.

Global Macro Perspectives

Numera Analytics·Jun 9, 2026

The report analyzes the impact of the Iran conflict on the global economy, noting that while inflation is rising, strong AI-led investment limits recessionary risks. Policy paths are diverging, with the ECB expected to tighten while the Fed remains cautious.

The 10 Toughest Client Questions Part 1

UBS·May 29, 2026

UBS analyzes how AI infrastructure investment is offsetting the stagflationary risks posed by the energy crisis and Strait of Hormuz closure. The report highlights that for over 50% of global GDP, AI-related gains are currently more significant than energy-driven drags.

What Happens Next If Global Real Yields Continue Higher

Goldman Sachs·May 27, 2026

Goldman Sachs warns that the recent spike in nominal yields is being driven by real rates rather than inflation, creating a restrictive environment that is 'nothing good' for risk assets. This 'tightening without inflation' regime threatens long-duration equities and emerging markets as financial conditions tighten.

A Regime-Proof Portfolio

TS Lombard·Jul 10, 2026

The report argues that the macro investment regime has shifted from a low-pressure, cost-minimizing environment to a high-pressure, revenue-chasing system. Investors should favor commodities and broader equity participation over narrow tech-leadership and long-duration bonds.

Global Opportunity Asset Locator

Goldman Sachs·Jun 5, 2026

US Economic Viewpoint: Implications of a K-Shaped Economy

Bank of America·Jun 29, 2026

Global Economic Briefing: North America Trade From Rules to Discretion From Autos to AI

Morgan Stanley·Jun 8, 2026

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