Report Type

Credit Strategy Research Hub

Credit markets entering 2026 are characterized by a favorable default outlook and historically tight spreads, necessitating a strategic pivot toward yield-enhancing complexity. While EUR and USD High Yield default rates are forecast at manageable levels of 2.2% and 3.8% respectively, investment-grade spreads have compressed to the 1st-2nd percentile, leading managers to seek illiquidity premia in asset-backed finance and private placements. Performance remains divergent across regions and sectors; for instance, while corporate leaders like ABB show improving credit profiles and potential net cash positions, Mexico has seen private sector credit growth decelerate sharply to 2.6% amid legislative uncertainty. In the financial sector, the €140bn European AT1 market remains resilient despite regulatory scrutiny, as the cost of replacing these instruments with common equity remains prohibitive. Meanwhile, the supranational landscape is shifting with a reduced €577bn EU RRF envelope and new funding requirements for defense and Ukraine facilities. Ultimately, credit strategy is increasingly focused on deep fundamental research and the capture of carry, as idiosyncratic company-specific factors replace systemic volatility as the primary driver of returns.

26 reports available

Raizen Execution Risk

UBS·Jul 7, 2026

Raizen has reached an out-of-court agreement to restructure $12.5bn in financial liabilities following a default. Analysts view the restructuring as necessary but flag significant execution risks due to a pending federal tax settlement.

Vedanta Resources Thoughts On The Tender

UBS·Jun 17, 2026

UBS advises bondholders of Vedanta Resources to participate in the company's debt refinancing tender. The recommendation is driven by the introduction of a par redemption clause that limits potential upside and poses downside risks for non-consenting holders.

Tracking Credit-Funded AI Datacenter Builds

Goldman Sachs·Jul 6, 2026

The report analyzes the $90 billion market for AI datacenter joint-venture debt, noting that while projects are currently on schedule, investors should expect future performance dispersion based on refinancing and structural risks.

CMPC Natureza May Add Pressure

UBS·Jun 11, 2026

UBS maintains a 'Deteriorating' credit outlook for Inversiones CMPC (CMPC) due to rising leverage, pulp price volatility, and the execution risk of its USD 4.6bn Natureza Project. While refinancing risk remains low, CMPC's credit ratings face pressure at the bottom end of the investment grade scale.

OCP S.A.: Lowest-Cost Producer of Phosphate-Based Fertilizer

UBS·Jun 4, 2026

OCP S.A. is a dominant, low-cost phosphate producer benefiting from Morocco's vast reserves, though it currently faces margin compression from high raw material costs linked to Middle East instability.

Celulosa Arauco: Ratings Under Pressure

UBS·Jun 1, 2026

Celulosa Arauco (Celara) is facing significant ratings pressure with a 'Deteriorating' outlook from UBS as leverage reaches 7.6x during the construction of the USD 4.6bn Sucuriú Project. While at risk of becoming a 'fallen angel', the company maintains strong liquidity and support from its parent company.

Trade of the Week Allianz

UBS·May 28, 2026

Barry Callebaut: Tender Offer for EUR Bonds

UBS·Jun 4, 2026

Ecopetrol Rising Sovereign Burden

UBS·May 19, 2026

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