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Macro Thematic Research Hub

Current macro thematic research highlights a significant divergence in global monetary policy paths and the impact of political shifts on fiscal trajectories. In Japan, the projected snap election victory for the LDP is expected to catalyze 'Abenomics'-style stimulus, while the Bank of Japan focuses on underlying inflation trends near 2% to justify continued policy normalization and rate hikes. This Japanese monetary shift is further complicated by yen depreciation, with USD/JPY levels near 160 potentially necessitating official intervention or accelerated tightening to manage cost-of-living pressures. Conversely, Colombia’s central bank maintains a hawkish posture, raising terminal rate projections toward 11.25% in response to a 23% minimum wage hike and a positive output gap. In contrast to these tightening cycles, Ghana has entered an easing phase following a sharp decline in core inflation to 3.8%, supported by a strong balance of payments. Finally, while emerging markets like Indonesia show resilient domestic momentum with 5.39% GDP growth, cooling natural resource sectors suggest that commodity-driven export headwinds may become a primary theme for the coming year.

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