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GlobalData TS Lombard’s recent research paints a complex picture of a shifting macroeconomic regime defined by persistent inflationary biases and an elusive traditional correlation between stocks and bonds. Analysts warn that the current AI investment boom is characterized by circular capital recycling among hyperscalers, necessitating a transition to broader economic productivity to sustain growth. Labor market dynamics are expected to tighten significantly by mid-2026, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and pressuring the central bank to maintain higher-for-longer rate environments. Amidst this, the firm identifies a tactical opportunity for the US dollar to rally as domestic growth outperforms international peers, particularly if geopolitical risks remain unresolved. Furthermore, political uncertainty surrounding the 2026 midterm cycle poses additional risks to market stability and safe-haven assets. Ultimately, the research suggests that investors must move toward an ensemble approach to diversification, as the era of reliable bond rallies during equity drawdowns appears to be waning.

52 reports available

This Is Not The Time For Jpy Funded Em Carry thumbnail

This Is Not The Time For Jpy Funded Em Carry

GlobalData TS Lombard·Jul 10, 2026

This report outlines a bearish outlook for JPY-funded EM carry trades and identifies structural inflationary pressures from AI-related capex. It also highlights a strategic shift in Chinese household savings toward domestic equities.

Federal Financing Needs Restrain Warsh thumbnail

Federal Financing Needs Restrain Warsh

GlobalData TS Lombard·Jul 1, 2026

Federal financing pressures and the high reliance on leveraged hedge fund demand for Treasuries are forcing the Fed to maintain a cautious stance on rate hikes. Despite strong economic data, the fiscal necessity of keeping debt costs low and tax revenue high via equity markets constrains monetary policy.

October BoJ Hike Looks Underpriced thumbnail

October BoJ Hike Looks Underpriced

GlobalData TS Lombard·Jul 2, 2026

GlobalData TS Lombard argues that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in October, as economic data on wages, employment, and inflation expectations surpass market expectations. They recommend expressing bullish JPY views through specific currency pairs like SEK, NZD, or CAD.

October Boj Hike Looks Underpriced thumbnail

October Boj Hike Looks Underpriced

GlobalData TS Lombard·Jul 2, 2026

The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates in October, as current market pricing of a 60% probability is deemed too low. Strong domestic data, including wage growth and retail sales, supports this hawkish outlook.

October BoJ Hike Looks Underpriced thumbnail

October BoJ Hike Looks Underpriced

GlobalData TS Lombard·Jul 2, 2026

The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates in October as resilient economic data and AI-driven growth offset previous supply-side concerns. Markets are currently underpricing this probability, which remains at approximately 60%.

Capex and the Yield Curve thumbnail

Capex and the Yield Curve

GlobalData TS Lombard·Jul 8, 2026

The report analyzes the relationship between CAPEX types and the yield curve, noting that while 'new' CAPEX has been resistant to curve flattening, the equity market is beginning to show concern.

Capex and the Yield Curve

GlobalData TS Lombard·Jul 8, 2026

Why We See More Dollar Upside

GlobalData TS Lombard·Jul 1, 2026

Be Prepared For A Us Yield Curve Inversion

GlobalData TS Lombard·Jun 30, 2026

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