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GlobalData TS Lombard’s recent research paints a complex picture of a shifting macroeconomic regime defined by persistent inflationary biases and an elusive traditional correlation between stocks and bonds. Analysts warn that the current AI investment boom is characterized by circular capital recycling among hyperscalers, necessitating a transition to broader economic productivity to sustain growth. Labor market dynamics are expected to tighten significantly by mid-2026, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and pressuring the central bank to maintain higher-for-longer rate environments. Amidst this, the firm identifies a tactical opportunity for the US dollar to rally as domestic growth outperforms international peers, particularly if geopolitical risks remain unresolved. Furthermore, political uncertainty surrounding the 2026 midterm cycle poses additional risks to market stability and safe-haven assets. Ultimately, the research suggests that investors must move toward an ensemble approach to diversification, as the era of reliable bond rallies during equity drawdowns appears to be waning.

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