Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch

Mizuho forecasts a June 2026 BOJ rate hike to 1.0% and an eventual terminal rate of 1.5% as Japan maintains positive real wage growth. JPY intervention was estimated at nearly JPY 10 trillion during the Golden Week period.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Japanese government and BOJ likely conducted yen-buying interventions totaling approximately JPY 9–10 trillion in late April and early May 2026.
• 2.The most likely timing for the next BOJ rate hike is the June meeting, assuming Middle East tensions stabilize, with a target of 1.0%.
• 3.Real wages in Japan have grown for three consecutive months, though the growth rate slowed to +1.0% YoY in March.

Table of Contents

• Review of key indicators and events
• Economic indicators
• BOJ-related events
• Economic outlook (as of 11 May)
• Important Disclosure Information
• Analyst Certification
• Disclaimer

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