Security

EURUSD: Expert Forex Analysis & Research

The EURUSD outlook is currently dominated by a "dollar-positive" macro environment, driven by persistent European fundamental weakness and a hawkish Fed reaction function following US inflation surprises. While the ECB remains data-dependent, with officials signaling a potential June rate hike to counter second-round wage effects, market pricing has shifted toward three ECB hikes by 2026. This monetary backdrop has pressured EURUSD to test critical support levels at 1.16, as the US Dollar finds further support from 30-year Treasury yields approaching 5.15% and safe-haven demand stemming from Middle East tensions. Institutional analysts have consequently downgraded EURUSD targets, citing the divergence between US resilience and Eurozone disinflationary signals found in recent wage data. Furthermore, global bond yield volatility and extreme equity positioning are adding to the cautious sentiment, with the DXY index trending toward a 99.25/50 gap target. Ultimately, the pair remains caught between the ECB’s cautious normalization path and a strengthening greenback bolstered by fiscal concerns and higher-for-longer US rates.

174 reports available

EUR Reality Check thumbnail

EUR Reality Check

Rabobank·Jul 9, 2026

The report evaluates the EUR's diminished momentum following the dissipation of optimism regarding German fiscal reforms. RaboResearch anticipates sideways trading for EUR/USD in the near term.

Key Currency Views thumbnail

Key Currency Views

J.P. Morgan·Jul 3, 2026

J.P. Morgan maintains a 'Bullish beta, bullish dollar' outlook, favoring high-yield EM energy importers and carry strategies. While the USD faces consolidation pressure, the firm remains strategically constructive on the currency pending further economic data.

FX Weekly thumbnail

FX Weekly

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 26, 2026

The report analyzes the USD rally, attributing it to hawkish Fed expectations and unwinding hedges, while suggesting limited further upside due to aggressive market pricing. It highlights risks to the USD including fiscal imbalances and volatility in AI-linked capital flows.

FX Daily Snapshot thumbnail

FX Daily Snapshot

MUFG·Jun 29, 2026

The US dollar continues to exhibit strength as markets price in monetary policy divergence between the Fed and European central banks. Meanwhile, investors are monitoring UK political developments regarding incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham's economic policy agenda.

FX Daily Snapshot thumbnail

FX Daily Snapshot

MUFG·Jul 2, 2026

The report highlights the euro's weakness following soft inflation data and provides context for the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report's impact on Fed policy. It also discusses shifting expectations for central bank rates in the ECB, BoE, and Fed.

FX Weekly thumbnail

FX Weekly

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jul 3, 2026

This report provides weekly G10 FX market analysis, emphasizing that current market expectations for Fed rate hikes are likely too hawkish. It outlines revisions to JPY, AUD, NZD, and CAD forecasts amidst shifting central bank policy trajectories and geopolitical risks.

FX Daily Looking For Stabilisation

ING·Jun 25, 2026

FX Daily: USD Rally Getting Tired

ING Bank N.V.·Jun 26, 2026

FX Daily: AI Jitters Add Fuel To USD Rally

ING Bank N.V.·Jun 24, 2026

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