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FX Strategy Research Hub

Current FX strategy research highlights a resilient US Dollar (DXY) supported by a rebounding manufacturing sector and safe-haven demand, despite long-term projections of an initial dip to 96.3 before a year-end recovery to 100.0 in 2026. In Asia, the Japanese yen remains highly volatile, navigating intervention rumors and domestic election uncertainty, even as the Bank of Japan’s 2.2% CPI forecast signals an earlier path toward rate normalization. Regional stability is being anchored by the PBOC’s commitment to keeping USDCNY below 7.0000, which has provided a tailwind for the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit. Meanwhile, the Indian rupee has benefited from strategic US tariff cuts, though the loss of discounted Russian oil poses potential medium-term risks to India's current account. Elsewhere, a dovish shift is emerging in Central and Eastern Europe and Thailand to address deflationary pressures, while Bank Indonesia maintains a restrictive stance to support its currency. Finally, heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a correction in procyclical assets are reinforcing the dollar’s role as a primary hedge against global volatility.

179 reports available

USD/JPY Known Unknowns

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jul 10, 2026

USD/JPY is currently trading near fair value, making central bank intervention counter-productive. Our analysis suggests an upward trend toward a median fair value of 170.45 driven by structural macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

Japan FX Key Drivers Boosting EUR JPY

Citi·Jun 23, 2026

Citi Research analyzes the structural shifts in EUR/JPY price formation, highlighting that Japanese equity performance has replaced interest rate spreads as a primary driver. The EUR/JPY appears slightly undervalued by current models, potentially due to official Japanese JPY-buying interventions.

An Analysis Of The EUR/JPY Price Formation Mechanism

Citigroup Inc.·Jun 18, 2026

This report analyzes the price formation mechanism of the EUR/JPY pair using a two-tiered model, concluding that it is significantly influenced by Japanese equity performance and risk preferences. The pair appears overvalued and potentially more vulnerable to risk asset corrections than USD/JPY.

Fast FX: Buy EUR/JPY

Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank·Jun 1, 2026

Crédit Agricole's FAST FX model has entered a long EUR/JPY position targeting 189.71, citing a Z-score undervaluation of 1.5 standard deviations. The trade is driven by movements in peripheral Eurozone bond spreads and relative equity market performance.

Closing Short EUR/JPY Via A Put Spread

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 10, 2026

Crédit Agricole CIB is closing its short EUR/JPY put spread trade following an out-of-the-money expiry and a -2.0% loss. The strategy failed due to JPY weakness driven by energy-related terms of trade shocks.

EUR Reality Check

Rabobank·Jul 9, 2026

The report evaluates the EUR's diminished momentum following the dissipation of optimism regarding German fiscal reforms. RaboResearch anticipates sideways trading for EUR/USD in the near term.

G10 FX Strategy: Buy FX Vol, Not The USD

Morgan Stanley·Jun 23, 2026

FX Strategy Presentation

J.P. Morgan·Jun 22, 2026

Fast FX Buy Eur Usd

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·Jun 29, 2026

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